What a Republican Congress means for the H-1B visa

If you want to know how the Republican-controlled House will stand on the H-1B visa program in 2023, look to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). In 2013, Cruz sought to increase the base H-1B cap from 65,000 to 325,000 or by 500%.

"This measure would effectively address the needs of our nation's high-skill workforce," he said at the time.

But just two years later, Cruz reversed course. He joined former Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) in a bill that would raise the minimum H-1B visa salary to $110,000 and prevent employers from hiring H-1B workers for two years after a layoff.

By 2015, it became hard for Cruz and many other lawmakers to dismiss the problems with the H-1B program.

"The mass layoff of American workers at Disney, Southern California Edison and many other companies -- who were then forced to train their foreign replacements -- underscores that our political system has failed in its duty to protect our own people," Sessions said in announcing the legislation.

The Cruz and Sessions plan to raise H-1B minimum salaries to $110,000 is now backed by nearly 160 U.S. House members, who are all signers of the Republican Study Committee's "Blueprint to Save America." The plan from the conservative caucus includes ending the H-1B visa lottery, which is used today to distribute visas over the 85,000 annual allotment, and replacing it with a distribution system that allocates visas based on salary offering -- with the highest salaries assured a visa.

But even if Republicans control the House, that doesn't mean H-1B visa legislation will advance next year. None of the immigration sources contacted for this column, who represent all sides of this issue, seemed optimistic about any work visa legislation passing in 2023. Immigration issues have all but stalled, and the House Judiciary Committee, which oversees immigration, is expected to spend the next year focused on oversight and investigations of President Biden's administration and not work-related immigration.

Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee Immigration and Citizenship Subcommittee who would become the subcommittee's chair if Republicans win the House, appears focused on the southern border and not on work visas. In his list of issues, he only mentions "illegal immigration -- border crisis" as a topic, not work visas.

Regardless, McClintock is a critic of the H-1B visa program. At a hearing in 2021, he referred to the "continuing scandals" of American workers "ordered to train their replacements as a condition of receiving severance pay."