The ruling on Google's first major antitrust fight with the U.S. government may have felt like a slap on the wrist for the search giant, but it also shows the effect of AI technology on the search market.
Earlier this week, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta provided follow-up remedies after ruling in August that Google is a search monopolist.
Mehta rejected the Department of Justice's proposed request to force Google to split off products including Chrome, Search and Android. He ruled that Google cannot enter into exclusive agreements with companies that will make Google Search the only option. However, the search giant can continue to pay its partners, such as Apple, to distribute services. Mehta also ruled that Google must share online search data with its competitors.
While many have criticized Mehta's decision, claiming it doesn't affect Google, the company said it plans to appeal the decision.
AI and the ruling
On his part, Mehta emphasizes AI technology as a major deciding factor in his ruling.
"The emergence of GenAI changed the course of this case," Mehta wrote. "No existing rival has wrested market share from Google. And no new competitor has entered the market. But artificial intelligence technologies, particularly generative AI ("GenAI"), may yet prove to be game changers."
He added that while GenAI chatbots such as ChatGPT, Perplexity and Claude are not yet at a point that they will replace the Google Search engine, "the industry expects that developers will continue to add features to GenAI products to perform more like GSEs."
The remedies that Judge Mehta came through with yesterday were seen as particularly light on Google and are not expected to make any difference in search market share at all.
Ari PaparoFounder and CEO, Marketecture Media
For many, the ruling was disappointing.
"The remedies that Judge Mehta came through with yesterday were seen as particularly light on Google and are not expected to make any difference in search market share at all," said Ari Paparo, founder and CEO of Marketecture Media and author of the book Yield: How Google Bought, Built and Bullied Its Way to Advertising Dominance.
He added that even Mehta's requirement that Google provide some of its search data requires some ironing out.
"There's quite a bit of detail that needs to be explored to determine what data will be provided, when it will be provided and how useful it might be to other parties," Paparo said. "We should expect Google to work hard not to provide as much data as possible. There are tricky issues with providing this data, like privacy; search terms can be used to identify users."
AI as the true winner
Despite the disappointing ruling, Paparo said the court's awareness of the emerging competition in AI technology could help Google's competitors.
For example, the restrictions placed around the distribution deals prevent Google from entering or maintaining exclusive contracts related to the distribution of Google Search, Google Chrome, Google Assistant or the Gemini app. There is also a time-limit restriction on its distribution deals, which could help competitors like Perplexity or even OpenAI.
Moreover, the ruling is also a win for other tech and AI companies that could find themselves in similar situations, in which they may be accused of monopolistic behaviors, according to Michael Bennett, associate vice chancellor for data science and AI strategy at the University of Illinois Chicago.
"It seems like the ruling gives them a new tool because Metha essentially says that the advent of machine learning or generative AI has really transformed the issues at play in the case," Bennett said. He added that the judge's ruling suggests that the effect of the monopolistic claims that Google is facing is less significant than it would have been if GenAI were not a factor.
AI companies could benefit if considered one of Google's competitors, given the ruling that the search giant must share its data.
"A lot is going to turn on who is actually going to be considered a qualified competitor," Bennett said.
Being a profitable competitor
However, even if Perplexity and AI search vendors gain access to Google's data, they will still have to find a way to be profitable, said Mark Beccue, an analyst at Omdia, a division of Informa TechTarget.
"The chatbots have to figure out a way to make money to be a legitimate search tool for people," Beccue said. "There's a bigger hill to climb for Chatbots because they don't have a business model for advertising that I can see competing."
Perplexity has made moves to monetize its model. In late August, the vendor announced Comet Plus, a new subscription model where users pay $5 monthly to access content from its partners, and the vendor will pass revenue to them.
Google's AI search market is competing with not only Perplexity or OpenAI, but also social media giants like Meta. There is also news that Apple plans to introduce a new AI-powered search tool for Siri that will compete in the search market.
With so much competition emerging in AI search, Mehta's ruling might be a foretelling of what is to come.
"This ruling has disappointed many people, but the real action is in AI, and maybe the judge had some wisdom not to try to tackle the last battle but to look forward to the future," Paparo said.
Esther Shittu is an Informa TechTarget news writer and podcast host covering artificial intelligence software and systems.
